Cup Spy – Day 30: America’s Cup Match – Day 4 – Will Today Be the Brits’ Greatest Achievement?
by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World NZ 16 Oct 02:52 PDT
16 October 2024
INEOS Britannia leads Emirates Team NZ – Louis Vuitton Preliminary Regatta, Race Day 2 © Ricardo Pinto / America’s Cup
Pre-Race Analysis
Today will demand the finest attributes of the British spirit, qualities often revealed in battle throughout history, rescuing the world’s foremost maritime nation from difficult situations.
The Battle of Barcelona is the latest in this line of challenges.
Indeed, the score stands at 4-0 in favor of the Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron, and many consider the result a foregone conclusion.
However, a detailed examination of the races since the Louis Vuitton Cup Finals began, including Race 4, reveals that 85 legs were completed without a lead change at a mark after the first mark was rounded – this across 15 races. Only in one instance during the LV Finals, specifically Race 7, did a mark lead change occur, when Luna Rossa led but then broke their main traveler support.
The findings are even more striking when including the Round Robin races between the two LV Finalists and Emirates Team New Zealand; an additional 14 legs showed no lead changes at a mark, raising the total to 99 marks without a lead change. This translates to a staggering 99-0 count, suggesting nearly 100% certainty that once the leading boat rounds the first mark, it will claim the race.
There was only a single race in the aforementioned group with a mark lead change: the initial clash between Luna Rossa and Emirates Team New Zealand, in Race 2 of the Round Robin, wherein the Italians led at Mark 2, but Kiwis passed at Mark 3 to eventually win the race.
In our opinion, these three boats display a reasonable match for speed, providing a valid evaluation and commentary on the AC75 class as a type.
For Kiwi supporters and spectators, this means you only need to observe the first mark’s rounding and can confidently head to bed, reassured of the race outcome. It’s also the opportune moment to contact your favorite bookmaker regarding the race result.
Certainly, there are lead changes evident in the racing graphics, but the statistical data indicate these are merely temporary; the final race positions will reflect those at Mark 1.
What does this signify for INEOS Britannia?
Clearly, they must be the first to round Mark 1. In Race 4, they nearly achieved this, with it being deemed a dead heat. Even a margin of just two or three seconds can work wonders—statistically, the result remains unchanged.
While assessing wind shifts and pressure may appear straightforward when viewed on video, reviewing one of the stern camera recordings from the AC75s shows the limited visibility and the challenge of detecting wind shifts and those critical 1-2 knots of increased pressure.
One must empathize with the crews’ pressure to think precisely, at tremendous speed, with their backs against the wall.
History illustrates that the British have triumphed against great odds numerous times. Will the Battle of Barcelona become another success story?
Weather Update:
America’s Cup Weather Partner PredictWind has devised a specialized Race Weather Center, granting fans insight into detailed daily weather analyses, live webcams, and historical weather data, complemented by insights from meteorologists.
Current Forecast for Race Day 30:
Predictions for Wednesday by Arnaud Monges, a former America’s Cup Team Meteorologist
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
In the morning, Barcelona experiences light winds, while a broader southerly wind gradient is apparent further offshore. This southerly flow is predicted to reach Barcelona around midday or early afternoon. The wind is expected to progressively build from the South, yielding 8 to 12 knots from a bearing of 200° once established, which may delay the race start. Waves at 1 meter from the Southeast at 5-second intervals will be influenced by the stronger winds offshore but will not align perfectly with the wind direction. The skies will partly cloud over with more sunshine expected in the afternoon, and temperatures could peak at 24°C.
Course Details:
America’s Cup Race Schedule – Races 5 & 6: Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Race 5: Emirates Team New Zealand (Port Startbox entry) vs INEOS Britannia (GBR) (Starboard Startbox Entry) Start: 1410hrs CET
Race 6: INEOS Britannia (GBR) (Port Startbox entry) vs Emirates Team New Zealand (Starboard Startbox Entry) Start: 15:15hrs CET
Virtual Eye
After the racing concludes, you can review the key moments or the entire race using Virtual Eye from ARL. This is the same tool that Inside Tack utilizes to illustrate various points by following the real tracks of the AC75s.
Access the Virtual Eye America’s Cup coverage directly by clicking here, then select “Watch Previous” to view your chosen race. Virtual Eye is a 3D viewer that allows you to zoom in, out, around, and up and down, similar to maneuvering in a helicopter.
INEOS Britannia Dockwalk
To be posted when available:
Crew Lists
To be posted when available:
Onboard video
To be posted when available after the racing
Additional Images:
