Spy on the Cup – Day 30: America’s Cup Match – Day 4 – Will this be Britain’s greatest moment?
by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World NZ 16 Oct 02:52 PDT
16 October 2024
INEOS Britannia leading Emirates Team NZ – Louis Vuitton Preliminary Regatta, Race Day 2 © Ricardo Pinto / America’s Cup
Pre-Race Analysis
Today demands the best traits that define the British spirit, qualities refined through centuries of warfare, which have helped the world’s preeminent seafaring nation escape dire situations.
The Battle of Barcelona stands as the latest example.
Currently, the score is 4-0 in favor of the Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron; to many, the result seems predetermined.
However, a statistical look at the races since the Louis Vuitton Cup Finals began, including Race 4, reveals that in 85 legs, there has been no lead change at a mark after rounding the first, across 15 races. The only time a lead change occurred during the LV Finals was in Race 7 when Luna Rossa led before their main traveller support broke.
This analysis becomes even more compelling when including the Round Robin races among the two LV Finalists and Emirates Team New Zealand; thus, an additional 14 legs with no lead change raises the total to 99 marks where this holds true. This means there’s a 99 to zero or nearly 100% likelihood that once the lead boat rounds the first mark, they will go on to win the race.
In the aforementioned races, only one saw a lead change at a mark: during the first encounter between Luna Rossa and Emirates Team New Zealand in Race 2 of the Round Robin, where the Italians led at Mark 2, and the Kiwis took the lead at Mark 3, ultimately winning the race.
Our assessment is that these three boats are closely matched in speed, making this analysis a valid commentary on AC75 class racing.
For Kiwi supporters, this implies you only need to witness the first mark rounding, after which you can head to bed with confidence about the race’s outcome. It’s also a good time to contact your favorite bookmaker to place a bet on the result.
While the graphics may show lead changes during the race, the statistics indicate these are merely fleeting positions, and the outcome aligns with situations at the first mark.
What does this signify for INEOS Britannia?
Clearly, their aim should be to round Mark 1 first. They nearly achieved this in Race 4, which was deemed a dead heat. Even a margin of two or three seconds would suffice, and statistically, the outcome would remain unchanged.
Although seemingly straightforward on video, observing the AC75s through a stern camera reveals limited visibility and the difficulty in detecting wind shifts and crucial pressure cells of 1-2kts.
You must empathize with the crews needing to think clearly, at high speed, and under pressure.
History has shown the British triumphing against formidable odds repeatedly. Will the Battle of Barcelona become another chapter?
Weather Forecast:
America’s Cup Weather Partner PredictWind has established a dedicated Race Weather Center, providing enthusiasts access to daily weather updates, live camera feeds, and meteorologically written historical data.
Current Forecast for Race Day 30:
Forecasts for Wednesday by Arnaud Monges, former America’s Cup Team Meteorologist
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
This morning, Barcelona expects light winds, with a significant Southerly wind gradient existing further offshore. Anticipated is a Southerly breeze reaching Barcelona by midday or early afternoon. The wind should progressively build from the South, expected between 8 to 12 knots at 200° once established, which may result in a race start delay. Waves of 1 meter from the South-East at 5 seconds will be influenced by stronger winds offshore. Expect some misalignment between waves and wind. The sky will be partly cloudy with increased sunshine this afternoon, reaching temperatures of up to 24°C.
Course Location:
America’s Cup Race Schedule – Races 5 & 6: Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Race 5: Emirates Team New Zealand (Port Startbox entry) vs INEOS Britannia (GBR) (Starboard Startbox Entry) Start: 1410hrs CET
Race 6: INEOS Britannia (GBR) (Port Startbox entry) vs Emirates Team New Zealand (Starboard Startbox Entry) Start: 15:15hrs CET
Virtual Eye
After racing, you can replay key moments or the entire race through Virtual Eye from ARL. This tool is employed by Inside Tack to illustrate various points using the actual tracks of the AC75s.
Access Virtual Eye’s America’s Cup coverage directly by clicking here, then select “Watch Previous” and choose the race you want to view. Virtual Eye offers a 3D viewing experience, allowing you to zoom in and out and navigate just like a helicopter.
INEOS Britannia Dockwalk
To be posted when available:
Crew Lists
To be posted when available:
Onboard video
To be posted when available after the races
Additional Images:
