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With about sixty days remaining before the peaceful transition of power from President Biden to President-Elect Donald Trump, the nation is anticipating a new era. The “male-dominated” administration will see a return of the US to its adventurous, masculine roots, characterized by a leader regarded by many as an “ultimate male.”
A key component of the upcoming administration’s strategy is the commitment to deport millions of undocumented individuals annually. America will strengthen its southern border and ensure that if individuals seek asylum, they do so at an official entry point. Unauthorized crossings into Arizona and New Mexico, especially those abandoning their passports, will no longer be accepted.
To accomplish this ambitious goal, Trump is appointing Tom Homan as the new border chief, succeeding Kamala Harris in the role. His straightforward demeanor has already been apparent in various media appearances and televised committees, portraying him as someone who takes no prisoners. However, therein lies the challenge. For Homan to fulfill Trump’s objectives, he will need to detain hundreds of thousands of individuals. Where will they be housed?
Mass deportations have occurred previously in American history, notably under the 44th President, Barack Obama. The Harvard Law School graduate deported around six million undocumented immigrants during his administration, a time when immigration wasn’t as contentious. Border authorities had the resources necessary to track down those trying to circumvent the system, returning them to their countries of origin.
However, conditions worsened during Obama’s later presidency, and Trump, despite his bravado, couldn’t effectively reverse the trend in his first term. Subsequently, President Joe Biden eased restrictions, leading to an influx of individuals illegally entering the US in search of job opportunities and a better life. Current estimates suggest that over 11 million undocumented individuals might be residing and working in the country, frequently alongside those who entered legally.
“The current state of the US immigration system indicates that many people without US documentation are being arrested,” explains Future Bail Bonds. “These individuals enter the country seeking work and housing, only to find themselves in legal trouble.”
Clearly, the issue encompasses not only numbers but also a legal system ill-equipped to manage tens of millions of individuals. The level of evidence-gathering required will be immense.
Legal Bottlenecks
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One significant hurdle is the legal bottlenecks. Undocumented individuals in the US currently possess the right to appeal deportation decisions, with the court system grappling with over 1.9 million active cases. If Trump intends to resolve this situation, he must simplify the process, invest more in legal teams, or amend the law, all of which may prove difficult within his first year.
Cost Restraints
Additionally, there are financial considerations. While the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) seeks to minimize costs, the expenses associated with deporting individuals could escalate. Some estimates suggest total costs may reach around USD 89 billion annually, although the actual figure could be much higher.
ICE and other related agencies currently lack the necessary staffing for Trump’s plans. Estimates indicate they might require up to ten times the current personnel for detention, transportation, and operations. These operations necessitate officers on the ground to physically remove undocumented immigrants from the country. Initial assessments suggest that there aren’t enough adequately skilled personnel in the states most affected by mass migration, indicating a necessary change in approach. While Trump and Elon Musk contemplate incentivizing Washington DC staff to resign from their positions, a similar carrot-and-stick strategy may be needed for the southern border dilemma.
“The available jail space for typical criminals is quite limited,” notes Future Bail Bonds. “Most police stations have only a dozen or so beds available at any time, leading many defendants to be relocated to regular prisons across county or state lines while waiting for trial. This situation often serves as punishment in itself, underscoring the importance of bail.”
Impact on the Economy
Trump will also have to address the economic repercussions. Migrants frequently play a crucial role in US businesses, and their deportation could impact GDP and shift domestic labor from more productive tasks.
Labor shortages in agriculture and construction are the most probable outcomes. However, the hospitality industry may also suffer, hindering these sectors’ growth relative to recent trends.
Eliminating contributors to local economies might undermine regional government budgets. Decreased tax revenues have a more significant impact on states and counties compared to federal officials who control money printing.
Political Resistance
Moreover, Trump will encounter political opposition. Many residents near the southern border oppose mass deportations, despite their popularity as a policy. Furthermore, these residents are likely to become active in political advocacy, including direct action.
State legislatures and courts may also challenge Trump. These institutions previously resisted him during his first presidency, particularly regarding the border wall with Mexico, compelling him to retract parts of his earlier plans. Although they are less formidable this time, they may still implement delay tactics.
Constitutional Challenges
Finally, deportations may provoke constitutional disputes. While new border chief Tom Homan asserts that families can be deported together, many removals will inevitably divide families, especially mixed-status ones where some members possess US residency or citizenship and others do not.
The Fourth Amendment could also impede Trump’s plans, restricting officers from conducting expansive deportation raids and leading to potential claims of unlawful searches and seizures.
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