Vendée Globe Race – Day 27: Did Dalin Just Double His Lead in a Single Day?
by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World NZ 6 Dec 06:48 PST
7 December 2024
Freelance.com – Southern Ocean – Vendée Globe – December 4, 2024 © Guirec Soudee
There seems to be a significant opportunity in the Southern Ocean as the top two boats in the Vendée Globe leaderboard aim to capitalize on their standings.
Pre-race favorite Charlie Dalin decided against retreating from the approaching storm, the first of the Southern Ocean leg, risking his position near the Ice Gate while staying slightly north of the Kerguelen Islands. If the weather favors him, Dalin could secure a 1,000nm lead over third-place Yoann Richomme, who chose to sail north and away from the center of the Low pressure system that affected the leaders earlier this week.
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After covering over 10,000nm, with more lead changes than the previous America’s Cup, the leaders are poised to cash in their chips following a major strategic decision regarding the Southern Ocean storm.
Vendée Globe race leader Charlie Dalin (MACIF Santé Prévoyance) looks set to extend his race lead to over 500nm against third-place competitor Yoann Richomme (Paprec Arkéa).
Dalin has managed to stay close to the intense low-pressure system that has significantly impacted the race—more due to navigational decisions taken by the sailors two days ago than the actual weather conditions.
He has perfectly positioned himself in the upper right quadrant of the Low pressure system and has moved with it over the past 12 hours, achieving a remarkable 553nm daily run (24hrs), which is 120nm more than Richomme, who opted for a northern route three days earlier to avoid the Low pressure system.
Sébastien Simon (Groupe Dubreuil) was the only competitor to remain with Dalin south of the Kerguelen Islands, but he hasn’t matched Dalin’s impressive 22.6kts speed over the past 24 hours. However, with Predictwind weather routing applied to a great circle sailing distance of 3500nm, Richomme is projected to close in on Dalin due to better wind strength and sailing angles while holding onto second place as they approach Cape Horn.
Earlier in the week, the now 38-boat Vendée Globe fleet spread out in response to an impending low pressure system, which brought winds over 50kts and confused seas exceeding 10 meters.
In the last 12 hours, competitors are beginning to see the varied consequences of their chosen strategies.
Some boats positioned themselves north, led by Richomme in an attempt to evade the storm center and the worst conditions, yet those winds appear to have passed, and their challenge now is to recover the distance lost during their cautious northern approach.
Others, like Sam Goodchild (Vulnerable), stayed in the center and are sailing at slower speeds compared to the leading pack.
Race leaders Dalin and Simon sailed just north of the Kerguelen Islands and close to the virtual Ice Gate. They are expected to utilize the remnants of the storm to slingshot over the top of the Ice Gate.
As that phase concludes, all groups will need to optimize their strategies to account for the right wind angle and diminishing wind strength.
However, by mid-next week, both northern and southern groups will encounter a second intensifying storm, again anticipated to produce gusts of 50kts for some competitors.
To balance out the short-term gaps, we have shifted the virtual waypoint to a longitude east of the Chatham Islands—the easternmost extension of New Zealand’s territory within the Southern Ocean—and we are evaluating results along a distance of 3500nm for the route to Cape Horn.
Dalin and second-placed Sébastien Simon have sailed just north of the Kerguelen Islands, also known as the Desolation Islands (Îles de la Désolation), part of the sub-Antarctic region. The duo appears not to have felt the storm’s full impact, which is expected to gust over 50kts, and it could be even stronger at sea.
Reports from other sailors experiencing lighter winds indicate that the natural tendency of the IMOCA60 is to try and sail over 35kts in these conditions while surfing down the waves, making it crucial to slow down the boats to a safer and more manageable speed.
Boats in the southern group are forecasted to face maximum gusts of 50kts around mid-afternoon on Dec 6 UTC, while those in the northern group can expect 38-40kts during the early hours of the morning (0100hrs) on Dec 6 UTC. How these scenarios unfold in practice will be revealed in the upcoming days.
Latest video updates from December 5 UTC.
English update
Conrad Colman:
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