Vendée Globe Race – Day 19: Lead change – the top three in a match race
by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World NZ 29 Nov 16:53 PST
24 November 2024
Sébastien Simon – Groupe Dubreuil – Vendée Globe 2024 – November 26, 2024 © Sébastien Simon
A slight lead change has occurred in the Vendée Globe 2024 Race fleet as the top three racers navigate past the Cape of Good Hope and enter the Southern Ocean. Nevertheless, the Predictwind weather routing suggests a near tie.
Sébastien Simon (FRA) on Groupe Dubreuil is currently shown on the official tracker with a lead of .66nm over former race leader Charlie Dalin (FRA) who is sailing MACIF Santé Prévoyance, while Yoann Richomme (FRA) on Paprec Arkea is reported to be 5nm behind Simon on the Race Tracker, which calculates each boat’s remaining distance to the finish in Les Sables d’Olonne.
Alterations in the expected outcomes for the leading boats necessitate careful positioning for the following segment of the 24,400nm non-stop solo race around the globe. The fleet of 39 IMOCA60 boats has now been racing for 19 days.
In the above image, the course options appear relatively straightforward for a day, after which significant decisions must be made regarding whether to head north to encounter an area of low pressure or to remain south, which entails a shorter distance.
A low-pressure system that presented excellent record-breaking prospects is now depicted as being somewhat weaker and is moving south. However, there remains the potential for considerable high-speed mileage between 1900hrs UTC on Dec 3 and 1730hrs UTC on Dec 6 for Charlie Dalin, who is believed to have the fastest boat among the three.
For performance prediction purposes in the image above, we have adjusted the virtual endpoint to the eastern corner of the exclusion zone at the Ice Gate, situated approximately due south of Cape Leewin and at the juncture where the gate shifts southward to enable competitors to navigate around the southern tip of New Zealand and Cape Horn.
This point is around 8020nm from the current position of the leading boats in the Southern Indian Ocean, with predictions indicating that both Dalin and Simon will take 9 days and 17 hours, while Richomme is expected to take an additional hour, based on the ECMWF data feed from Predictwind.
