Cup Spy – America’s Cup Match: Day 4 – Brits Strike Back in Barcelona Showdown
by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World NZ 16 Oct 13:46 PDT
16 October 2024
A jubilant Giles Scott – Head of Sailing – INEOS Britannia – Louis Vuitton 37th America’s Cup, Race Day 4 – October 16, 2024 © Ricardo Pinto / America’s Cup
INEOS Britannia made history with the first victory by a British yacht in America’s Cup racing in 90 years.
The last British win was by Endeavour (Sir T.O.M Sopwith) in the 1934 America’s Cup, which was sailed in J Class. Similar to the current races, Endeavour won two races and was close to winning a third to secure the Cup.
Wednesday was critical for INEOS Britannia to remain a formidable contender in the America’s Cup regatta. Onshore, officials were openly discussing a potential race schedule if Emirates Team NZ continued their dominance with six wins. The situation was tense.
As noted in Cup Spy’s pre-race analysis, after Monday’s Race 4, it was evident that the British team was on the verge of an upset, possibly two. Today, they achieved the double.
In the last 18 races involving the top three teams in the regatta—Luna Rossa, Emirates Team NZ, and INEOS Britannia—the lead around the marks remained unchanged, with the leading boat at the first mark winning each time. Before Monday’s race, the British team had consistently trailed around that crucial first mark by significant margins of 11-24 seconds, allowing the America’s Cup Defender to sail towards relatively easy wins.
However, that trend shifted on Monday when the British team reached a dead heat with the Kiwis at Mark 1, demonstrating that the Brits were significantly improving in the America’s Cup Series.
On Tuesday, a non-race day, the British practiced in fresh breezes with challenging sea conditions. This preparation proved beneficial.
Emirates Team New Zealand made a crucial error early in the pre-start for Race 5 when they gybed at an inopportune moment, getting caught in a wind hole while encountering choppy seas as they turned to pursue INEOS Britannia, who approached from a different angle. The Kiwis nearly came to a halt in the final minute of the pre-start.
When ETNZ entered, the breeze was around 7 knots, quickly falling to 5 knots, while the British boat faced approximately 4 knots when they entered the same air pocket. The difference was that the Brits maintained a speed of 30 knots, while the Kiwis struggled in the turbulent sea and lost their foils.
That moment sealed the race for ETNZ, leaving them with little chance of recovering and rejoining, as conditions remained light on the course for the race’s duration. INEOS’s focus shifted to maintaining their foiling and escaping the slow start area to reach the fresher breeze further up the course.
Wind conditions improved for the second start, with about 10 knots, eliminating the risk of a repeat of Race 5.
Both teams experienced issues with their event-supplied race computers. The British team seemingly resolved their technical difficulties after the first race of the day, resulting in a near-perfect start in Race 6.
Emirates Team New Zealand put forth strong efforts but could not secure control at the Race 6 start, with the Brits delivering a decisive blow in the final 30 seconds, charging through the windward mark at 44 knots and diving into the start box before angling towards the outer end. They crossed the start line at full speed, while Emirates Team NZ opted for a split tack to steer clear of the British team’s wake.
INEOS Britannia used their powerful start to reach the port boundary quickly, and when the two AC75s reached their first cross, the Brits, although the give-way boat, had sufficient clearance to comfortably pass ETNZ. At that point, the race was effectively over, assuming they could maintain their lead at Mark 1. The Brits rounded with a 6-second margin, the closest the Kiwis got all race.
Emirates Team New Zealand battled onwards but could not manage a pass even though they were just 7 seconds behind in the final three legs. The British team managed to extend their lead to 16 seconds mid-race, but they faced challenges with the seaway as their rudder rake seemed to force their bow into the head sea, impeding their speed builds out of tacks.
The Kiwis didn’t experience the same issues but relieved the pressure on the Brits when they had a poor rounding at the bottom gate, which caused their rudder to wash out momentarily.
According to the Brits’ public debrief, there were no pre-race pep talks; everyone was aware of their responsibilities, stated Giles Scott, Head of Sailing—and they executed smoothly.
“With two victories, we’re back in contention,” he remarked.
Tomorrow will see no racing; two races are scheduled for Friday, with at least one more set for the weekend.
Full Replay America’s Cup Day 4, Races 5 and 6
Inside Tack:
Pre-Race Analysis: The Battle of Barcelona
Today will require the best traits that define the British character, which have emerged in warfare over hundreds of years, allowing the world’s premier seafaring nation to navigate through numerous challenging situations.
The Battle of Barcelona is the latest iteration of this.
Yes, the current tally stands at 4-0 in favor of the Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron, and to many, the finish seems preordained.
However, a statistical assessment of the races since the beginning of the Louis Vuitton Cup Finals, including Race 4, shows that there have been 85 legs run without a lead change at a mark across 15 races. Only in one race of the LV Finals did a mark lead change occur, which was in Race 7 of the Final when Luna Rossa was leading but broke their main traveler support structure.
This analysis becomes even more compelling when considering the Round Robin races between the two LV Finalists and Emirates Team New Zealand, yielding another 14 legs without any lead changes at a mark—bringing that count to 99 marks without a change. Thus, there exists a near 100% certainty that once the lead boat rounds the first mark, they will continue to win that race.
Only one race among those analyzed saw a lead change at a mark: the inaugural encounter between Luna Rossa and Emirates Team New Zealand in Race 2 of the Round Robin, where the Italians led around Mark 2, and the Kiwis took the lead at Mark 3 en route to the race win.
We conclude that these three boats are comparably matched in speed, making this analysis valid commentary on the racing in the AC75 class.
For Kiwi fans and viewers, it means that observing the first mark rounding is sufficient; they can confidently go to bed knowing the eventual outcome. It’s also an opportune moment to contact your favorite bookmaker for betting on the race results.
Naturally, lead changes might appear on the race graphics, but the data suggests these are only temporary, with the final results reflecting the positions at Mark 1.
What does this imply for INEOS Britannia?
Clearly, achieving the first rounding at Mark 1 is imperative. They almost managed this in Race 4, where it was deemed a dead heat. Even a margin of two or three seconds could prove advantageous, as statistically, outcomes remain unchanged.
As depicted in the graphic, speed differences between the boats are not significant; however, the Brits do have a vulnerability concerning speed at the bottom of tacks/gybes—though at 25-26 knots, they still exceed the minimum speed necessary to stay foiling.
While picking wind shifts and pressure may appear simple in videos, examining one of the stern camera feeds from the AC75s reveals limited visibility and demonstrates how challenging it is to detect wind shifts and those crucial 1-2 knots pressure pockets.
One must sympathize with the crews as they must think clearly, at high speeds, while under immense pressure.
History reveals that the British have triumphed over substantial odds before. Will the Battle of Barcelona be yet another?
Race 5: Emirates Team New Zealand (Port Startbox entry) vs INEOS Britannia (GBR) (Starboard Startbox Entry) Scheduled Start: 1410hrs CET
Emirates Team NZ struggled in the confusing waters during the pre-start and failed to get back on their foils prior to the race. GBR’s lead grew to 1.6 km before NZL established their foils, but it was an impossible mission to close the gap.
Start:
Mark 1: 05m 41sec GBR led NZL margin 2m 15sec
Mark 2: 08m 58sec GBR led NZL margin 1m 59sec
Mark 3: 13m 15sec GBR led NZL margin 1m 37sec
Mark 4: 16m 26sec GBR led NZL margin
Mark 5: 20m 36sec GBR led NZL margin 1m 28sec
Finish: 24m 15sec GBR led NZL margin 1m 18sec
Race 6: INEOS Britannia (GBR) (Port Startbox entry) vs Emirates Team New Zealand (Starboard Startbox Entry) Scheduled Start: 15:15hrs CET
Start:
Mark 1: 03m 26sec GBR led NZL margin 06sec
Mark 2: 06m 35sec GBR led NZL margin 09sec
Mark 3: 10m 53sec GBR led NZL margin 09sec
Mark 4: 14m 09sec GBR led NZL margin 16sec
Mark 5: 18m 10sec GBR led NZL margin 13sec
Mark 6: 21m 31sec GBR led NZL margin 07sec
Mark 7: 25m 23sec GBR led NZL margin 07sec
Finish: 28m 13sec GBR led NZL margin 07sec
Live coverage
Weather Update:
America’s Cup Weather Partner PredictWind offers a dedicated Race Weather Center, granting spectators access to daily weather breakdowns, live webcams, and historical weather data updated daily by meteorologists.
Current Forecast for Race Day 30:
Forecasts for Wednesday by Arnaud Monges, former America’s Cup Team Meteorologist
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
In the morning, Barcelona will experience light winds, with a broader southerly wind gradient present offshore. This southerly breeze is anticipated to hit Barcelona by midday/early afternoon. The wind is set to fill in gradually from the south, creating 8 to 12 knots from 200°, indicating possible delays for the race commencement.
Waves of 1 meter from the southeast at intervals of 5 seconds will be generated by the stronger winds offshore. Waves and wind will not align perfectly.
The sky will be partly cloudy today with increased sunshine in the afternoon, and temperatures are expected to peak at 24°C.
Race Schedule:
America’s Cup Race Schedule – Races 5 & 6: Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Race 5: Emirates Team New Zealand (Port Startbox entry) vs INEOS Britannia (GBR) (Starboard Startbox Entry) Start: 1410hrs CET
Race 6: INEOS Britannia (GBR) (Port Startbox entry) vs Emirates Team New Zealand (Starboard Startbox Entry) Start: 15:15hrs CET
Virtual Eye
Following the races, viewers can replay the key moments or the entire race using Virtual Eye from ARL. This tool is employed by Inside Tack for illustrative purposes, utilizing the actual paths taken by the AC75s.
To access the Virtual Eye America’s Cup coverage, click here and select “Watch Previous” to choose the desired race. Virtual Eye functions as a 3D viewer, allowing you to zoom in, out, around, and up and down just like you could from a helicopter.
INEOS Britannia Dockwalk
Crew Lists
Onboard footage
Race 5:
Race 6:
Additional Images: