Vendée Globe Race – Day 28: A Lot at Stake in the Southern Ocean
by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World NZ 7 Dec 15:56 PST
8 December 2024
Stand As One – Altavia during the Vendée Globe sailing race on December 06, 2024 © Eric Bellion
In the Southern Ocean, there seems to be much at stake over the coming days as the leading two boats on the Vendée Globe leaderboard aim to solidify their advantage.
Pre-race favorite Charlie Dalin chose not to retreat from the approaching storm—the first of this Southern Ocean segment—taking his chances by the Ice Gate and remaining just north of the Kerguelen Islands.
Twelve hours ago, provided the weather favored him, Dalin appeared poised to secure a 1,000nm lead over third-placed Youann Richomme, who decided to sail north and away from the center of the low pressure system that impacted the front-runners earlier this week.
Both skippers are now facing the consequences of their tactical choices, striving to navigate around the western edge of the Ice Gate before they can proceed eastward.
However, at the 1800hrs UTC schedule on December 7, Dalin’s forecasted lead according to Predictwind’s weather routing function was reduced to 543nm over Richomme, who leads the northern strategy group.
Yet, four hours later—with Dalin rounding the Ice Gate and sailing directly along it to the east—his projected lead was extended by 140nm. Meanwhile, Richomme still needed to sail south for a bit longer before heading east.
Had the weather systems turned out differently, Richomme and others in his group may have been able to drop to the flat section of the Ice Gate without losing much ground—especially since the race unfolded as it did for Dalin and second-placed Sébastien Simon (Groupe Dubreuil)—the only competitor who remained with Dalin south of the Kerguelen Islands—became stuck south of the westernmost and northernmost points of the Ice Gate.
Dalin rounded the Ice Gate corner at the 2200hrs UTC update and is set to encounter rapidly changing weather systems—where storms develop from low pressure and high systems intervene—creating lighter winds initially, then increasing wind strength as they push against a low, much like a passenger attempting to board a train on a crowded platform.
Given this scenario, the odds might be better at a roulette table. The challenge for all competitors, be they leading or trailing, is recovering from navigational errors in a course where the fairways, sandtraps, and roughs are all shifting.
Additionally, one competitor’s setback presents an opportunity for another. Race leader Charlie Dalin serves as a trailblazer, showing those behind him where to go—or where to avoid.
In typical circumstances, without an Ice Gate, trailing sailors would simply dive south, hoping for lighter winds, keeping an eye out for icebergs, and gaining ground by sailing a shorter distance.
However, this edition of the Vendée Globe doesn’t allow that option; the Ice Gate acts as a virtual yet substantial barrier, compelling a game of follow-the-leader.
Conrad Colman:
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Vendée Globe:
